AUGUST MARKET REPORT
- Markets have been moving as expected with year over year price averages up significantly more than historical averages and mortgage rates at the lowest they've been since April 2023.
- Someone asked me last week about the risk of a housing market crash. In the news, you hear about high levels of inflation (although trending down), record high consumer debt, highest ever home prices, rising unemployment, etc... all of which indicate we're inevitably headed towards a housing disaster. All of those issues are true, but one of my favorite sayings 'don't step over a dollar to save a dime' applies beautifully here. By far, the most significant factor needed for housing prices to fall significantly is a large increase in sellers vs buyers. How do we calculate this in the real estate market? Months Supply.
- Months supply is simply the number of homes sold in a month compared to the average number of homes for sale during that same month. Example, if Oakland county had 1000 sales in August and an average of 2000 homes for sale throughout the month, we'd have 2.0 months supply. In August 2007, Oakland county had 21.5 months supply of homes for sale. In August 2024, Oakland county had 2.1 months supply of homes for sale. I'm not saying prices will go up consistently, and this quickly, forever, because they won't. Macomb county being up 7.3% year over year is over double the historical average. What I am saying, is if we start having concerning data in the housing market, you'll be the first to know here.
- Would you like specific data on your city, your neighborhood, or even your home? All of the data above is a region wide average. There are always specific markets that stray away from these averages. If you'd like to dive into something specific, let's chat.
Have a great rest of the week,
Jeff
Graphic 1. Median Sales Price (12 mo rolling data | % on right compares the past 12 months to the previous 12 months)
Graphic 2. Homes For Sale (12 mo rolling data | % on right compares the past 12 months to the previous 12 months)
Graphic 3. 30 Yr Fixed Conventional Mortgage Rate (previous month)
Graphic 4. 30 Yr Fixed Conventional Mortgage Rate (previous year)